Trader Wins 26 Bets in a Row; Zcash and Strategy Shorts Are Bleeding

Key Takeaways Trader 0x362a shorted 15,785 ZEC at $867 on Sept. 4 and is down $5.27M after ZEC hit $1,249. The account also shorts 30,000 tokenized Strategy shares on Hyperliquid, down 52% as MSTR trades near $142. Free margin reads $0 and the ZEC short liquidates at $1,316.95, so a 10% rally erases the $3.76M…

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Trader Wins 26 Bets in a Row; Zcash and Strategy Shorts Are Bleeding
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Key Takeaways

$1,317 Is the Number on the Screen

A Hyperbot dashboard revealed the trader’s potentially unfortunate story in one row:

  • Short 15,784.87 ZEC, cross margin at 5x, entry $866.90, mark $1,202.51, liquidation $1,316.95, unrealized loss $5,269,660, or 139% of the margin behind it.

However, by Monday morning ZEC had printed a 24-hour high of $1,249 and was trading around $1,200, about 10% below the liquidation line. At 5x cross leverage, the whole account backs the trade. Account equity is $3,755,558, but free margin available: $0.

The Two Shorts

The ZEC bet is not the only one, given that the same address is short 30,000 tokenized Strategy shares on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 equity perpetuals, isolated at 8x, entered at $133.35 with the mark at $146.04. That leg is down $381,812, or 52% of its margin, with liquidation at $162.37. Strategy stock closed Sept. 5 at $142.55 on Nasdaq, so the onchain mark ran a little hot over the weekend.

Both trades are the same idea, i.e. fade the two most crowded rallies of September. ZEC is up 134% in 30 days. Strategy resumed buying bitcoin on Aug. 31 with 4,603 BTC at an average $80,318, taking its holdings to 845,050 BTC, and its shares trade as a leveraged proxy for bitcoin’s price.

synthesia

Position value across the two legs stand at $23.34 million, against $3.76 million of equity, a 6.26x account-level leverage ratio. Because the ZEC leg is cross-margined, it draws on the account’s full perpetuals equity of $3.65 million. The MSTR leg’s $732,163 of isolated margin is walled off from it, which means it cannot be lost to a ZEC squeeze (but at the same time cannot be used to survive one).

The Streak

What makes this account worth watching is the record. Hyperbot’s all-time perpetuals profit still shows $3.29 million, down from roughly $10 million at the start of September. Win rate over the past week is 66.67%, while maximum drawdown is at 65.92%.

In other words, a three-day-old short has given back about two-thirds of everything the streak earned. Here are three ways this ends:

  • The squeeze: ZEC has a record $2.4 billion of open interest, per Coinalyze, and $34 million of shorts were liquidated when it crossed $1,000 on Sept. 4. The largest short on the venue, by Garrett Jin, is $25.7 million underwater from a $444 entry and still holding. If Jin covers, the buy-back could carry ZEC through $1,317 in minutes.
  • The retrace: ZEC’s 24-hour range over the past 24 hours already spans $1,024 to $1,256. A pullback toward $1,000 would cut losses by roughly $3 million and rebuild the trader’s margin.
  • Fresh collateral: With $105,813 of spot holdings and no free margin, the trader would need to deposit to move the liquidation price. Nothing in today’s data shows that to be the case.
  • Shorts have won this fight before, as evidenced by Jin covering a ZEC short for $11.24 million in June when the privacy coin rolled over. The difference now is that the streak trader has no margin left to wait it out. Interesting week ahead!

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